College Football Week 8

College Football Week 8

Week 7 Premium Plays: 5-4 (even)

Week 7 Leans: 1-3-1 (-1 unit)

Overall Premium Plays: 26-17-1 (+13 units)

Overall Leans: 14-15-1 (-0.5 units)

Overall Combined Record: 40-32-2 (+13 units)

Week 7 Summary: There was a point on Saturday around mid afternoon where there were some preposterous thoughts rattling around my partially inebriated brain. Thought generational wealth was on the table. Fell apart quickly there.  

Week 8 Preview: Lock in.

Week 8 Premium Plays:

Noles +3.5 at Duke (2 units): I can think of at least 3 people off the top of my head that audibly laughed and closed the page seeing the Florida State Seminoles as the opening pick. If you’re still here, allow me to explain. Similar to Manny Diaz teams of the past, the defense carries a lethargic offense. In this case, the Duke defensive front is going to look to get after Brock Glenn in his first start against a team not ranked inside the top 15 in the nation. Big Cock Brock brings juice to this offense that Big Uce could only dream of. The revolving door Noles O-Line is going to need to buckle up to give Glenn time to operate but I expect mini Mike Norvell to open up the playbook a little here as Brock gets more comfortable. Similar to the Noles offense, Duke struggles to score. The Blue Devils have a balanced attacked but don’t move the ball well and struggle with turnovers. I think (pray) the preseason hype comes to fruition here as the highly touted Noles D Line keeps the run game in check and forces ex-Texas QB Malik Murphy to put the ball in the air. This game is a rock fight and I think Noles + the hook is too much. Noles leaving Norvell on the tarmac if they don't win here. Noles win outright 24-20.

Mormons -9 vs OK State (1 unit): Rare Friday double header. Weird things happen in Provo at night.. especially with a full moon. Bunch of freaks out there. That stadium is going to be rocking and the student section is going to look like a high school dance. Little grinding, little hand holding, whole lotta friction. Name of the game out there in Provo. Interesting people, the Mormons. Back to the game, this Pokes team is in shambles after three straight blowout losses at the hands of subpar teams. You have a better chance at finding a beer in Provo than you do at pinning down a Mike Gundy led team but I just don’t see this game as the bounce back game for OK State. The Mormons are going to be pumped to the gills with T and I don’t see a down and out Pokes team stopping them. Ok State QB and future Enterprise franchisee, Alex Bowman, loves to give the ball to the other team, while do-it-all Cougars QB Jake Retzlaff seems to be hitting his stride. Pokes left looking for a savior after a night in Utah, 41-17

Army -16 vs ECU (2 units): Square pick of the week here but we ride the hot hand. Statistically, ECU shows a stingy run defense allowing just 148 yards per game on the ground. When you look in to it, any team with a pulse runs all over them allowing 311, 170, and 190 yards on the ground in their last three games. On the other side of the ball we have the troops baby the Black Knights looking to add another blowout win to their resume. Bryson Daily is Taysom Hill reincarnated, the kid has a mean streak and he runs like it. I expect Army to chip away at an average ECU team and bust a couple runs late to pull away. Army rolls 38-17.

Iowa State vs UCF under 49.5 (1 unit): I will bet this game but there is no chance I watch a second of it for obvious reasons. Snooze fest between Iowa State and UCF…. Would rather watch grass grow. Just to let you all in to the analytical, complex, layered brain of William Tickets, what I see here is the offensive strengths of each play right in to the defensive strengths of the other. UCF heads in to the game rolling out a true freshman QB. UCF touts an explosive run game averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground. The problem is, Iowa State has a top 5 defense statistically allowing less than 130 yards per game on the ground. UCF is going to have to keep the defense honest and I don’t see a true freshman QB doing enough to hit a high number. Rocco Becht adds a spark to this Cyclones passing game but UCF gets home with the pass rush and I expect them to keep the Cyclones offense in check. Rock fight in Ames, Cyclones win 27-13.

Mizzou -4 vs Auburn (2 units): I think this Mizzou may have found their 2023 groove after a curb stomping at UMass. Big bounce back for son of Judah, Elijah Drinkwitz, on the high holiday no less! Auburn has struggled against lack luster competition and although Mizzou has done the same, they have found ways to win. The tigers defense has been able to get off the field with turnovers this season averaging a turnover a game. Payton Thorne knows a thing or two about throwing interceptions for the Auburn Tigers. Mizzou gains momentum at home, 27-17

USC -7 at Maryland (2 units): Trojans are desperate for a win after a brutal loss a week ago at home against Penn State where they had the game in control for three quarters. I still think this USC team is better than what their record indicates and they have a great opportunity here to wipe their feet on the B10 door mat team in Maryland. While USC has show potential, Maryland has been body bagged by fellow B10 bottom dwellers in Indiana and Northwestern. Maryland offense is led by a QB who has totaled 1700 yards so far this season through the air but they struggle to run the ball with any sort of efficiency. Fortunately for the Trojans, the secondary is the calling card for the defense allowing less than 200 yards per game through the air. USC keeps the lid on this Maryland offense in a relatively low scoring, but lopsided affair. Trojans get back on track, 31-17.

Week 6 Leans:

Fresno/Nevada over 49.5: Number seems way to low for the potential of these offenses. Turn over bug going to make this a heartbreaker of the most obvious play of all time. TBD

Indiana -6.5 vs Nebraska: Prove it week for Curt Cigneti and Co

Illinois +4 vs Michigan: Prove it week for Luke Altmyer and Co

Rutgers -4.5 vs UCLA: Prove it week for….kidding. UCLA west heading east to lace them up at the stroke of 8am west coast time. Give me Rutgers in a bounce back.

New Mexico/Utah State over 77.5: Zero defense getting played here.

Like the slate this week, don’t love it.

Cheers,

WT