College Football Week 7
Week 6 Premium Plays: 3-3-1 (+4 units)
Week 6 Leans: 1-3 (-1 unit)
Overall Premium Plays: 21-13-1 (+13 units)
Overall Leans: 13-12 (+0.5 units)
Overall Combined Record: 34-25 (+13.5 units)
Week 6 Summary: Once again cashing the big tickets. Barry Bonds of gambling. Leans regress to the mean. Going on a football season and a half with leans coming in right at 50%.
Week 7 Preview: To the bookie’s dismay, and the surprise of all…. Billy the kid loves the slate this weekend.
Week 7 Premium Plays:
Pitt -3 vs Cal (3 units): This one is pretty straight forward. Take the talent level and current track record out of it for a second. We have Cal coming off the game of their life and biggest game in school history which resulted in heartbreak, now heading across the country 5 days later to play essentially a morning kickoff against a conference foe ranked in the top 25. Can you say, “Hangover”? I see a crippling hangover for Cal. The one where you can’t move a muscle for hours on end. Now let’s bring in the track record and talent. Eli Holstein continues his break out season quarterbacking the Pitt Panthers totaling 1600 yards, 15 TD’s and 3INT through 5 games. Holstein has the Panthers ranked in the top 25 and absolutely clicking on offense as they welcome new conference opponent Cal to the formerly known Heinz field. This Pitt team is by no means world beaters but they have a balanced offense that I think wears down a defeated Cal Bears team. Calgorithm gets sent packing, 28-10.
Wazzou/Fresno State over 61 (3 units): A rare 7pm kick for two west coast teams. Stretch your legs, we have a track meet on our hands Saturday night in Fresno. Two defenses ranked in the back half of all of college football with Fresno at 93 overall defense and Wazzou at 116 overall defense. I see Washington State pacing this one with Fresno doing enough to keep the Cougars aggressive. John Mateer not only quarterbacks this Cougars offense averaging 495 yards a game but also is the statistical leader in passing and rushing. Mateer’s mobility is going to expose more holes with this Fresno defense than your girlfriend on a bachelorette trip (It was a one time thing… she really regrets it).
USC +4 vs State College of Pennsylvania (2 units): Bounce back game here for the Trojans off a loss a week ago against a feisty Minnesota team. This Trojans team is a top 25 team just looking to find their footing. On the other side, we have the most fraudulent #4 ranked team of all time. Almost by default. Didn’t even realize Penn State was ranked and now all of a sudden they are #4? Looking forward to a James Franklin choke job master class this Saturday coupled with a tik tok boy Drew Allar meltdown. This USC defense is heads and tails above what they have been in the past and I think I give the offensive edge to USC as well. USC edges the lions, 24-21.
Illinois -23 vs Purdue (1 unit): Fade Hudson Card, rinse, repeat. Nothing else to note here. 11/21 for 111 yards last week in a 52 – 6 LOSS. Mind boggling stuff from the 6th year gun slinger.
Mizzou -27 at UMass (1 unit): If Mizzou has any back bone whatsoever they go up to Amherst, Massachusetts and tar and feather the Minutemen like its 1774. Brother Drinkwitz cannot afford to not cover here. Especially on the high holiday of Yom Kippur! Mizzou reverts to 2023 form in a get right game where they have to be asking themselves… why the fuck are we playing at UMass. Tigers roll, 51-13. Shabbat, Shalom brother Drinkwitz. Missouri covers here, God willing.
Army -27 vs UAB (3 units): The troops are back baby. Last week it was Navy, this week we side with Army (Army/Navy game of the century this year). Army doesn’t quite have the air raid offense Navy put on display a week ago but they run the triple option to perfection with Bryson Daily under center. Daily has amassed 600 yards on the ground so far this year and has thrown for another 400 including 5 TD’s. I don’t see a need for Army to toss the pig skin in this one as they face off against the 124th ranked defense in college football. UAB has allowed an atrocious 227 yards per game on the ground. Army, on the other hand, has a top 30 offense averaging 361 rush yards per game…. Army Black Knight run game leaves UAB’s asshole singing opera in an absolute route, 63-17. #Don’tAskDon’tTell
Texas -14 vs OU (2 units): Ewers is back for the Longhorns taking on an OU team primed to be exposed. All anyone wants to tell you is how this game is always close and double digits is too many. I disagree. I think we see a dismantling of Oklahoma on full display at the Texas State Fair. Texas is too good on offense with Quinn Ewers under center and can do enough on the ground to keep the defense honest. The Longhorns play defense and get after the QB which will be crucial in rattling true freshman Sooners QB Michael Hawkins. OU has a respectable defense but is it any better than Michigan? Texas hung 31 on them. At the Big House. Hook ‘em 34-13
Mormons -3 vs Zona (1 unit): Jake Retzlaff has the Cougars rolling at 5-0 and dry humping their way to the #14 ranked team in the land. On the other side of the ball we have the two man show of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan who put themselves on the map a year ago with their high flying wildcats offense. Roster turnover seemed to have killed these cats with Fifita taking a step back in production and developing a turnover issue. BYU finds a way to score through the air but also on the ground. They don’t have a stable at RB, they have a whole farm. 7 players have seen double digit touches with 5 of them finding pay dirt. I like the top 25 Mormon defense to lead the way to a 24-10 win.
Ole Miss -3.5 at LSU (2 units): I’ll admit, I don’t love the way this line moved opening at +2.5 for the rebels and now finding itself at a 6 point swing here Friday afternoon. Doesn’t matter, I think Ole Miss rolls here. I went in to the season telling anyone that would listen this LSU team sucks. I stand by it. Do not let a couple cup cake wins sway you. Ole Miss has the #3 ranked defense and #2 ranked offense. Kiff daddy is keeping the pedal to the metal all the way through. Rebels 41- Tigahs 21
Week 6 Leans:
Tennessee -14.5 vs Florida: Get right game for the Volunteer offense.
Tenn/Florida over 56: Florida has to keep pace.
Ohio State/Oregon under 54.5: I think these guys spend some time in the first half feeling each other out, no diddy.
Cuse -3 vs NC State: Backup QB in for an abysmal NC State offense.
Kansas State -3 at Colorado: Bad team merchants Colorado Buffalos unfortunately have to face off against a decent team this week.
Boise -20 at Hawaii: As long as Jeanty can keep those legs fresh on the 8 hour flight to the rock, Broncos roll.
Monstrous slate this week for the kid. See you on the other side.
Cheers,
WT
Shabbat Shalom