Last Week Recap: After going 0 for on last week's picks at the shit Valero Texas Open, we're hungry to get back in the green and there's no better opportunity than this week at Augusta National. Recapping last week, I have sent multiple letters to the FBI advocating for Davis Riley's arrest after that performance he put on last Thursday and Friday. ICE should also be on Ryan Fox's tail as I demanded his exportation from the United States after fucking us out of our mortal Top 20 bet. Anyways, enough of the past, let's make some money this week.
The Course: Augusta National. Everyone is familiar with this course and if you're not, you're probably on the wrong site. Measuring over 7,500 yards and with maybe the fastest greens on Tour, The Masters always provides an all-around test that players cannot fake their way around. That is why The Masters is so iconic; it almost always brings out the best of the best. Off the tee, approach play, around the greens, and putting will all be equally tested this week. We're gonna be looking for shot makers that can keep it in the fairway, and guys that have shown success on ultra-lightning greens with the flat stick. Course knowledge is crucial at Augusta as the course features many tiered and undulating greens, so leaving yourself in a good putting position is paramount. In all, we're looking for well-rounded players who have shown they can contend at Augusta. Let's see who we're on this week.
Outrights:
Scottie Scheffler +750 5u
If this bet isn't on your card I can't help you. Best player in the world right now and it's not even close. If I was a hedge fund manager I would take the entirety of my client's assets and throw them on Scottie T20. Don't care about the odds, it's just free money. Unfortunately, I don't have millions to fuck around with so we'll try to get there with this bet. Mental midget Rory at the same odds is laughable (I'll probably be eating crow Sunday), and no one under +2000 shows any good value to me, so we'll ride the chalk here. Worse case scenario we have a Sunday sweat with Scottie in contention. Could be a lot worse.
Jordan Spieth +1600 2u
I made this bet and immediately knew it was dogshit. But, I would be remiss in my duties as a degenerate bettor if this wasn't on my card. Spieth is just magic, and his iron play and short play is so much fun to watch. Oh yeah, don't forget about his putter, too. We've seen flashes recently, and if he can hold it together for 4 rounds, Spieth has a chance to win, bigly. When Spieth is "on", he might be the only player in the world better than an "on" Scottie Scheffler. We'll throw a couple bones on the Magician and see what he can pull out of the hat this week.
Patrick Cantlay +2200 1.25u
Cantlay Top 10 is the much safer bet but the juice is shit so we'll ride him outright. When you think of well-rounded players with no holes in their game, Cantlay is one of the first to come to mind. He grades out as the best Par 4 and Par 5 player on hard courses via my model, and those are two huge stats this week. His putting on these greens has been bad in the past, but with any improvement we could see him in contention. In 2019 he gained strokes putting here and finished T9, and that was 2019. 2023 Patrick Cantlay > 2019 Patrick Cantlay.
Jason Day +2500 1.25u
Probably the chalkiest DFS play this week, that often means we like the player as a bet, and that holds true this week. In form? Check. Great short game? Check. Course Knowledge? Check. Day checks the boxes this week and you should have him on your card, if not as an outright, at least as a Top 10 at +160.
Brooks Keopka +3300 1u
This is probably my FSU bias kicking in but we're gonna throw a bone on Brooksy this week. Imagine he wins and you don't have a ticket on him. Probably borderline suicidal if that happens, personally. I'd much rather test my luck on a guy that could be peaking (see last week's LIV tournament), and is famished to win again on the world stage. Let's hope we get the pre-Jena Sims Brooksy this week.
Adam Scott +15000 .5u
Is this a joke? I understand this isn't 2011 Adam Scott, but give the man some respect, damnit! He's won here before for Christ's sake. He isn't playing his best golf right now, but at +15000 he's worth a small investment. One of the prettiest swings in golf with infinite course knowledge, Scott could be a sleeper this week if things click for him.
Top 10:
Tommy Fleetwood +375 1u
Fleet tends to show up at the top of the leaderboard in the early rounds of the Masters and fades away as the weekend progresses. We've seen this at the Players from Tommy, too. With that said, Fleet always seems to be around on the weekend at Augusta, making the cut each of his last five outings at the venue. Fleet flashed a little at Arnold Palmer and finished T3 at Valspar, so if he can stay close on the weekend, this bet has a good chance, and at the price, I like it a lot.
Top 20:
Si Woo Kim +200 1u
Kim has shown that he likes this course as he's finished T40 or better each of his past 5 visits to Augusta. Pretty good value at +200, I'd expect this closer to +150 so we'll throw a bone on it. Also a little fun fact, in 2021 when Kim finished T12, he finished his second round putting with a 3wood after a temper tantrum destroyed his putter! What could've been!
Taylor Moore +275 1u
Taylor Moore is one of the more underrated players on Tour, and after a win at Valspar, he'll be able to show of his skills with the big dogs this week. Don't have much on Moore other than he's been playing well and is undervalued by the books. This is his first time at Augusta so this could be a major flop but I like the guy so we'll ride.
Talor Gooch +325 2u
Love, Love, Love this bet which means Gooch will miss the cut, but fuck it, I'm not backing off this one. Gooch seemed to be one of the young up and comers on Tour before his mysterious defection to LIV. Gooch's lone start at Augusta was last year when he finished 14th and gained over 5 strokes on the field in putting. Maybe he was hot with the putter, or maybe he loves these greens, either way I love Gooch top 20 this week.
That's all the picks for this week (so far), if we add any matchups or more finishing positions we'll add them to this post. Look out for our DFS plays shortly!
Matchups
Corey Conners over Tyrell Hatton -125 2.5u
Conners has great course history here and Hatton, not so much. I'd expect this to be closer to -140 so we'll take it at a discount and hope continues continues his hot streak/past success here at Augusta.
Bubba Watson over Sepp Straka -120 2.4u
This is 100% a feel bet and I don't really have anything to back it up other than Bubba's great course history and the fact lefties play well here. I don't think this is a great fit for Sepp so we'll take this fun bet and root for Bubs this week.
Matchups Added!